Drought Warning for the next 3 to 6 months for Tonga ^Featured

El Nino Advice
A number of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators suggest that the 2015-16 El Niño has peaked in recent weeks. Tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures suggest this event is one of the top three strongest El Niño events of the past 50 years. Climate models suggest the 2015-16 El Niño will decline during the coming months, with a return to ENSO neutral likely during the second quarter of 2016.
 
What is El Niño?  
El Niño is the movement of warm ocean water from the north of Australia to South American crossing the Pacific Islands every 3 to 7 years. The movement of this warm water changes the weather patterns in many countries. El Nino usually lasts for 1 year.
 
Effects of El Niño on Tonga’s Climate and Activities
For Tonga, El Niño usually brings cooler night time temperatures, less rainfall and more cyclones than usual. El Nino years are excellent for growing sweet potatoes (provided enough water is given) and crops that depend on cooler night time temperatures but no good for rain dependant crops in the Summer time. Fruit trees and Vanilla also tend to do well during El Nino due to stress induce flowering. Tuna fisheries tend to be poor during this time due to tuna stocks migrating away from Tonga waters.
 
Current Situation  
The highest maximum day time temperature was 33.9°C recorded in Niuafo’ou on the 24th December and the lowest night time minimum temperature was 17.1°C recorded on the 10th of December in Vava’u.
 
Rainfall received across the country during December was below average across the country. Dry conditions over the Niuas were eased in November during the passage of Tropical Cyclone Tuni and also rain bands from the Tropical depression which was later named TC Ula in December 27th – 29th.   
 

 
Drought Analyser 

Rainfalls recorded in the last 3 months (i.e. October - December) were below normal in across the country except for Niuatoputapu, which received normal rainfall. Rainfall forecast for the next 3 to 6 months is for below normal conditions for Tonga, therefore it is advised to collect as much water as possible.  This pattern of three month outlook is typical of El Niño years.

 
Recommended actions for the next 3 months  

The strong El Niño has peaked in the past few weeks according to most climate models.  The rainfall outlook for the coming 3 months is below average with higher chance of tropical cyclone occurrence.  It is advisable especially for the smaller islands that do not have ground water to collect as much water as possible when it rains and use it wisely for drinking purposes only. Planners are encouraged to activate their drought response and tropical cyclone plans and remain on the alert for the possible continuation of below average rainfall for the next 6 months. Rainfall and tropical cyclone sensitive sectors such as Agriculture and Fisheries (Food Security), Health, Water Resource Management and

Tourism should take extra measures in public awareness and continue drought operations and tropical cyclone planning and the conservation of rain water. The public are encouraged to continue to seek advice from the relevant authorities e.g. Ministry of Agriculture and the National Emergency Management Office (NEMO) on the best practices to minimise the effects of El Niño.  
 
No     Good El Nino response practices for the next 6months
1     Continue to conserve water and use water wisely. If in outer islands only use rain water for drinking
2     Always keep guttering clean and ready to collect as much rain water as possible
3     Be responsible and exercise caution when lighting fires to avoid bush fires
4     Potentially tuna stocks could decrease so consider other fishing options
5     Plant drought resistant crops
6     Prepare for cyclones this season by tying down loose objects and trim overhanging branches
7     Care for grazing livestock and irrigate crops responsibly
8     Apply mulching to keep soil moisture and prepare for very hot days
9     Ensure you listen to the daily weather forecast & receive the next 3 months outlook
 
 The next El Niño Advisory will be issued in early February 2016.
 
MEIDECC